I Get Email: Decisive Vote Edition

One of the consequences of being a local delegate for one of the major parties is that you get put on everyone's email list. But I did get something beneficial out of this: I think I've figured out why Republicans have been losing a lot of elections in the past few years. Basically, they don't understand how elections work. Not in some strategic, Karl Rove sense, but in understanding the basic workings of how individual votes affect electoral outcomes.

This summer I am teaching Public Choice, and we have spent a little time working through the basic calculus of voting model. As, I hope, my students can now articulate, in order for your vote to matter in an instrumental sense it has to break a tie (or force a tie). We also spent plenty of time discussing non-instrumental reasons for voting, but as far as influencing an election, unless the margin is one vote your can not influence the outcome.

Okay, so there is a Republican Congressional primary in Virginia tomorrow, and the candidates are Amit Singh and Mark Ellmore [edit: in the 8th District]. Some mud has already been thrown in public and through private emails, but it's now really heating up, as they say. Singh is somewhat of a newcomer/outsider to the party, and it appears that there is some fear that he may present a challenge and be very important. In fact, the Ellmore campaign thinks that Singh is a very important guy, so important that he personally is allowed to cast 4,655 ballots.

In an email I received from they Ellmore campaign today, they claim that "thanks to Amit Singh, Democrats control the Senate and no judges are confirmed." You see, in 2006 Republican George Allen lost his Senate race by 4,655 votes. Amit Singh did not vote for George Allen. But as far as I know, Singh only possesses one vote. So how could his vote have tipped the election? It's unclear. (Note: Singh was not a public figure in 2006, so announcing who he was voting for could not have influenced anyone to vote for Allen.)

Is this just a single typo in the email? No. The Ellmore campaign goes on to ask "Why wouldn't Amit Singh support George Allen to keep the Senate in Republican control?" Again, Singh's support wouldn't have changed one thing about that election. And further: "Amit Singh helped to sabotage George Allen's Senate race in 2006 that gave control of the Senate to the Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Kerry Democrats." In conclusion, Republicans don't understand how elections work, in a very fundamental sense.

The Ellmore campaign email makes other accusations against Singh, including linking him to Ron Paul. Oh, the horror! But, oops, seems like Ellmore has kind things to say about Paul as well.

Yah for democracy.