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Are the 2008 Presidential primaries over (and botched) before they begin?

posted 2006.11.10 Friday

Tradesports has offered contracts on the 2008 major-party Presidential nominations since just after the last Presidential election in 2004.  Within the last week, prices on both the 2008DEM.NOM.CLINTON and 2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN contracts have broken above 50 for the first time.  On the Democrat side only the Obama and Gore contracts are even priced above 10, and among Republicans only the Giuliani and Romney contracts are above 10.

There are separate contracts on the winner of the general election, and these allow one to construct a crude implicit measure of each candidate's electability given their nomination.  Somewhat surprisingly given his reputation, McCain doesn't fare much better on electability than does Clinton.  Giuliani (9-10% to be elected, 13% to be nominated) clearly appears most electable, followed by Gore (7% to be elected, 11% to be nominated).  Obama, McCain and Clinton follow, with Romney appearing least electable.

So would Republicans be better off with Giuliani than with McCain, and would Democrats actually be better off returning to Gore than to Clinton?  (How deliciously ironic would it be if the latter question came in for serious public discussion during the primary campaign?!)

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1. David Schneider-Joseph left...
2006.11.10 Friday 11:53 pm

I have replied to your analysis here.


2. Jason Briggeman left...
2006.11.11 Saturday 2:05 am

^ People should definitely go read Mr. S-J's post.