I think I've figured out why the major airlines never seem to turn a profit for very long: they don't understand how markets work. Specifically, how oil futures markets work. I just received an email from Northwest Airlines titled "Help Fight America's Oil Crisis." Everything about the email looks authentic, except the body which reads like spam or a hoax. It calls for increased Congressional regulation of oil futures, and directs me to a website called StopOilSpeculationNow.com.
The letter is signed not only by the CEO of Northwest, but also 11 other major airlines. The letter can be read here. CNN is reporting the story, so I assume it is legit, but it is just so illogical (at least, without a public choice angle). Here is the main piece of evidence offered:
Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known.
Well that solves it, speculation has gone up from 21 percent to 66 percent of oil contracts. Speculators must be the culprit!
Just a few quick questions: twenty years ago, who was buying the other 79 percent of contracts? Why aren't they classified as "speculators"? Are they simply saying that in 1988 spot contracts were the majority of transactions, and now futures contracts are? It's unclear from the letter, and it is also unclear that this trend would be unique to oil markets. I suspect similar trends could be observed for commodities where the real price has fallen in the last 20 years.